The Predictive
Intelligence Layer
for DeFi
Predictool publishes AI-generated probabilistic forecasts, volatility projections, and risk scores on-chain — enabling smart contracts to act before markets move.
Live on Devnet•Sub-second latency•3 pilot integrations
Trusted by leading Solana teams
DeFi Doesn't See the Future.
It Barely Sees the Present.
Today's oracles report what already happened. Protocols react to price moves that have already cascaded through the system. The result: billions lost annually to preventable liquidations, stale risk models, and delayed governance.
Reactive, Not Proactive
Current oracles deliver historical price feeds. By the time on-chain data refreshes, the damage from volatility spikes is already done.
Liquidation Cascades
Without forward-looking risk signals, lending protocols trigger mass liquidations simultaneously — amplifying crashes instead of cushioning them.
No On-Chain Intelligence
Predictive analytics exist off-chain in siloed hedge fund dashboards. Smart contracts have zero access to probabilistic forecasts.
The Predictive Intelligence Layer
An on-chain oracle that doesn't just tell you the price — it tells you where the price is likely going, with confidence intervals and risk scores attached.
Predictive Oracle
Publish probabilistic forecasts (e.g. P(ETH drops > 5% in 4h) = 0.73), volatility projections, and composite risk indices directly on-chain — consumable by any Solana program.
- ›Multi-horizon forecasts (1h → 7d)
- ›Confidence intervals attached to every signal
- ›Native Solana account integration
Automated Risk Triggers
Smart contracts subscribe to risk thresholds and execute pre-defined actions — adjusting collateral ratios, activating hedges, or pausing markets — before volatility materializes.
- ›Configurable trigger thresholds
- ›Pre-signed instruction execution
- ›Composable with any Solana program
Hybrid AI + Market Validation
Ensemble ML models generate base forecasts. Prediction market mechanisms then validate and calibrate signals via staked skin-in-the-game consensus — combining AI speed with market wisdom.
- ›Transformer + gradient-boosted ensembles
- ›Staked validator calibration layer
- ›Continuous Brier-score monitoring
How Predictool Works
From raw data to on-chain intelligence in under one second.
Data Ingestion
Aggregate real-time feeds from CEXs, DEXs, on-chain metrics, social sentiment, macro indicators, and derivatives data via low-latency pipelines.
AI Forecast Engine
Ensemble of transformer-based time series models, gradient-boosted trees, and volatility estimators generate multi-horizon probabilistic forecasts with confidence bands.
Oracle Node Network
Decentralized validator nodes verify, calibrate, and sign forecasts. Staked accountability ensures data integrity. Prediction market layer adds skin-in-the-game validation.
On-Chain Consumption
Forecasts, risk scores, and triggers are published to Solana accounts. Smart contracts read data natively — no off-chain callbacks, no added latency.
Powering the Next Generation of DeFi
DeFi Risk Automation
Lending protocols auto-adjust collateral ratios and trigger preemptive risk actions before liquidation cascades begin. Reduce bad debt by orders of magnitude.
Institutional Risk Feeds
Hedge funds and trading desks consume institutional-grade volatility forecasts and probability distributions via API — calibrated, signed, and auditable.
DAO Governance Intelligence
Governance proposals receive AI-generated impact forecasts — probability of treasury drawdown, protocol risk changes, and scenario analysis, all on-chain.
Structured Products & Insurance
On-chain insurance and vault strategies price premiums dynamically using forward-looking risk scores, replacing stale historical lookbacks.
Built for Builders
Risk Dashboard
Real-time volatility heatmaps, probability distributions, and composite risk scoring across all tracked assets.
Prediction Feed API
RESTful + WebSocket APIs deliver machine-readable forecasts, confidence intervals, and historical accuracy metrics.
Market Probabilities
Aggregated prediction market signals with Brier-calibrated confidence — browse, query, or subscribe on-chain.
How We Compare
| Capability | Predictool | Traditional Oracles | Centralized Analytics | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictive Forecasts | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | Partial |
| On-Chain Native | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Sub-Second Latency | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Confidence Intervals | ✓ | ✗ | ✓ | ✗ |
| Risk Score Feeds | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Market Validation Layer | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ |
| Smart Contract Triggers | ✓ | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Staked Accountability | ✓ | Partial | ✗ | ✓ |
Enterprise-Grade Trust Infrastructure
No single point of failure. Every forecast is verified, signed, and accountable.
Multi-Node Consensus
Every forecast is independently verified by a decentralized set of oracle nodes before on-chain publication. Byzantine-fault-tolerant design.
Staking-Based Accountability
Validators stake capital against the accuracy of published forecasts. Inaccurate nodes are slashed, incentivizing honest reporting.
Continuous Model Monitoring
Real-time Brier score tracking, calibration drift detection, and automated model rotation ensure forecast quality never degrades silently.
Guardrails & Circuit Breakers
Automatic pause mechanisms activate if model confidence drops below thresholds or anomalous input data is detected, preventing garbage-in-garbage-out.
Early Momentum
3
Pilot Integrations
Active on Devnet
<800ms
Forecast Latency
End-to-end
94.2%
Calibration Accuracy
Brier-score benchmarked
12+
Data Sources
CEX, DEX, macro, sentiment
Frequently Asked Questions
A predictive oracle extends the concept of a blockchain oracle — which typically delivers current or historical data — by publishing forward-looking probabilistic forecasts. Instead of reporting 'SOL is $150 right now,' Predictool publishes 'There is a 73% probability SOL drops below $142 within 4 hours, with a 90% confidence interval of $138–$155.' These forecasts are signed, on-chain, and consumable by any smart contract.
We ingest data from centralized exchanges (order book depth, funding rates, OI), decentralized exchanges (on-chain volume, liquidity shifts), derivatives markets, macro indicators (rates, CPI proxies), social sentiment analysis, and on-chain analytics (whale movements, protocol health metrics). All inputs are normalized, cleaned, and timestamped before entering the forecast engine.
End-to-end latency from data ingestion to on-chain publication is typically under 800 milliseconds. Forecasts are updated continuously, with configurable update frequencies depending on the integration — from tick-level for trading protocols to hourly for governance use cases.
Integration takes less than a day for most Solana programs. You read from a Predictool account using a standard CPI call — no off-chain callbacks, no keeper bots, no additional infrastructure. We provide SDKs in Rust and TypeScript, plus a REST/WebSocket API for off-chain consumers. Our team supports every integration from sandbox to mainnet.
Predictool is infrastructure — we provide data feeds, not financial advice or trading services. We do not custody user funds or facilitate trades. Our forecasts are informational signals consumed by autonomous smart contracts. We work with legal counsel to ensure our infrastructure is appropriately structured and we engage proactively with regulators as the space matures.
Three layers: (1) Ensemble ML models cross-validated across multiple architectures and data windows, (2) a decentralized validator network that stakes against published forecasts, slashing inaccurate nodes, and (3) continuous Brier-score monitoring with automatic model rotation when calibration drifts. We publish accuracy metrics transparently.
Ready to Make Your
Protocol Predictive?
Join the protocols building the future of proactive DeFi. Request a demo or start integrating on Devnet today.
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